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What’s Bristol going to be like in 40 years’ time? And what should we do now to make sure the city is thriving then? A group of business leaders who’ve dubbed themselves The Initiative have just published their ideas. Eugene Byrne reports.

Just before Christmas, a group of Bristol business leaders launched a vision for how the city might look in 40 years' time. Less a blueprint for the future, and more what they hope will be the start of a public and civic debate, the central plank of the Bristol 2050 project was the publication of a book called 'High in Hope'. This is thought to be the first of its kind in Europe, and is modelled on a similar project undertaken by business leaders and architects in Chicago at the start of the 20th century. The 1909 ‘Plan of Chicago’ promoted a vision of the city as "the Paris of the Prairies".

Led by local business umbrella group Business West, the book has been produced by a group calling itself The Initiative, which is made up of local business leaders and chambers of commerce from Bristol and surrounding towns.

Bristol 2050's stated aim is to discard "the the very English penchant for the status quo" and "to test the boundaries, think boldly and keep growth concerns at the absolute forefront of future policy thinking". The book contains several suggestions, including, among others:

• An extensive footpath and cycle network along the shore of the Severn Estuary, opening up what is currently a difficult-to-access area for recreation, nature conservation and education and create a prime bird-watching centre.

• Massive remodelling of the Cumberland Basin area to get rid of the current "spaghetti junction" of roads to enhance existing historic buildings and make room for new homes, offices and possibly a major cultural venue.

• An Avon Barrage close to the M5 bridge at Avonmouth to create a "linear water park" (see separate panel).

• An integrated public transport system serving the whole of the Greater Bristol area, with emphasis on discouraging car use.

One of the key aspects of Bristol 2050 is the assumption that Bristol will continue to be very prosperous relative to much of the rest of the country, and indeed Europe. While Bristol historically declined in importance as an English city during the industrial revolution, it has been growing rapidly in recent decades due to a combination of factors. Most important among these has been a high concentration of high-earning industries based around technology, aerospace, media, new media and medicine. These are often working profitably with various departments from Bristol and Bath's four universities.

The Bristol 2050 plan anticipates that the city will need to develop around 6,000 hectares of land to accommodate the jobs and homes that will be required. This is the equivalent of around half the area of the existing city. This is based on the assumption that the population of Greater Bristol will grow by half a million by 2050, mostly due to migration. For these people, an additional 200,000 homes will be needed.

The author of 'High in Hope' is John Savage, a businessman and prominent member of the Society of Merchant Venturers. Savage has been an extremely influential figure locally for almost two decades, as head of various business bodies and public/private partnerships. He's been directly or indirectly involved in all manner of projects in Bristol, from At-Bristol and the regeneration of Harbourside through to Cabot Circus.

He said: “The Bristol region is already attractive to people and businesses but there is uncertainty about where it is going and why; there is no longer-term vision, no overall leadership, no sense of a shared direction. By ensuring that the business voice is heard and championing Bristol as the place to do business and to live, we believe that we can achieve a tangible and improving return on public investment, with a significant increase in the gross domestic product of the city-region."

Bristol 2050 comes at a time of potentially very significant changes locally. The Coalition government is talking about devolving more powers to cities, including greater control of transport and locally raised taxes. Later this year Bristolians will be voting on whether or not the city should have a directly elected mayor with executive powers. Savage and his team, however, think that this is no solution.

Speaking at the launch of ‘High in Hope’, Savage (pictured above) said: “The mayor debate is a complete diversion. There's no point in being the mayor of Bristol, there's no room for him or her to do anything ... I don't think we should fixate on mayors because there's no point in being mayor for the existing Bristol boundary; it's too tight.”

Instead the document calls for more focus on the Bristol "city-region". Bristol's existing boundaries do not take account of the realities on the ground, which are that Bristol physically and economically extends far out into areas run by neighbouring local authorities. Indeed, by 2050 it is likely that Bristol and Bath will be fused together in a single conurbation.

One of the most contentious aspects of the plan will almost certainly be its demands for a transport authority with powers over the whole conurbation and beyond. Even more controversial is its suggestion that there should be an elected mayor responsible for the entire region. In effect greatly reducing the powers of the four existing councils, or abolishing them altogether.

While this makes perfect sense from a Bristol viewpoint, it will cause howls of protest among neighbouring authorities, particularly North Somerset and South Gloucestershire, who jealously guard their powers but who in recent years have been accused of holding Bristol back because of their own narrow interests, particularly in transport planning.

"The old mid-19th century boundary for Bristol is hopeless," said Savage. "We need to get central government to recognise the place as it is so that it can be holistically managed."

Aside from transport, the biggest challenge facing the city-region in the coming years will be the provision of housing, and this is certain to be a cause of friction with Bristol's neighbours.

Savage said: "I just ask them to look at the map of the territory and get them to extract Bristol from it. They should then ask themselves what are they without Bristol? Frankly they don't have to become one unitary authority, they just have to pretend to be one. They can dice up the responsibilities effectively, but whilst they defend their little patches and turn steadfastly against the need for housing, they're like Canute, aren't they? People have got to be housed, and the territory on which they have to be housed is not in Bristol, there just is not enough space. But they could join in, couldn't they? Instead of being four warring members of the family ... "

Phil Smith, managing director of Business West, said that the ‘High In Hope’ book was to get conversations started: "The primary reason for publishing the 2050 vision now is to start a debate, raise aspirations and illustrate the benefits of long-term strategic thinking. We have involved the wider business community from the start of this project, and for it to be a success there needs to be an ongoing debate and a continual flow of new ideas. To facilitate this we’ve set up project groups and are encouraging the wider business community to participate and take ideas forward.”

FFI: SEE WWW.BRISTOL2050.CO.UK

Dockisation!!

Back in Victorian times, when Bristol's economy still revolved mainly around its port, there was a huge ongoing debate about how to save the city economically. Bristol was losing business to other ports, one of the main reasons being that its harbour was in the middle of the city. To get in or out, ships had to travel along the long and winding river Avon at high tide. As the newfangled metal-hulled steamships grew ever larger, there was an increasing danger they'd get stuck in the river on one of the bendy bits. Brunel's ss Great Britain, for instance, may have been built in Bristol, but getting her out into the Bristol Channel had been so hazardous that she never sailed back to Bristol again.

The obvious solution was to build a new port on the Bristol Channel coast, which of course is what happened in the end and how we got Avonmouth. A rival firm also built another dock at Portishead.

But for a long time, the city fathers considered another option – to turn the whole Avon from the city centre to the Bristol Channel into one enormous floating harbour. They'd build a dam at Avonmouth, bung up the river so it was permanently filled with water, and ships could come in and out through a system of locks. The scheme was known as "dockisation".

It seemed simple enough on paper, but the technical and drainage challenges, and thus the potential costs, were immense. The idea was finally abandoned after several decades of engineers' reports and civic dithering.

Now, though, the plan is back on the table. This time round, the Bristol 2050 document is not proposing dockisation as a way of improving the city's port business. Instead, the idea is to build a barrage near the M5 bridge at Avonmouth. This would carry a road, generate electricity, and reduce risk of flooding.

What we'd also end up with, from the centre to the sea, would be a huge "linear water park", a facility for boating, fishing and other leisure facilities. The Portway could be closed to traffic, either permanently or for some of the time, increasing the area's attractiveness.

Dockisation was too bold and expensive even for the Victorians, to whom anything seemed possible. Modern engineering techniques could now make it a reality, and – we assume! – at a much lower cost.

Surf's up!

Meanwhile, in a completely separate development, plans have been unveiled for an inland surfing facility next to the Avon Gorge. Wavegarden UK is a £5m leisure facility on a 450-metre man-made lake which the developers promise will feature 1.6m high waves. Experienced surfers will be able to ride for up to 55 seconds, while beginners can learn in a safe environment. The facility would also include family-friendly gardens and nature study facilities.

One of the sites the firm is looking at is the 13-acre former disused sports field next to the Portway. Plans some years ago to create a number of five-a-side football pitches at the site came to nothing, partly in the face of objections from local residents.

Wavegarden is the idea of two friends, Nick Hounsfield (an osteopath) and Tobin Coles (a corporate marketing director), who are also keen surfers. Another business partner is Chris Hines, founder of Surfers against Sewage and former director of sustainability at the Eden Project.

The firm is now seeking public views before submitting its planning application. If successful, it hopes to start work this year.

Hounsfield said: “Wavegarden is ambitious but achievable. It will be a fantastic place, close to Bristol city centre, that everyone can enjoy – all ages, all backgrounds and all abilities. It will be a space to relax and rehabilitate as well as a place to surf, play and have fun. We instinctively know that being in or around water is good for people and that is something we want to share.”

FFI: SEE WWW.WAVEGARDEN.ME.UK

Copyright Eugene Byrne 2012