FEATURES

Want to know what you’ll be talking about in the pub this year? Eugene Byrne lines up the big issues for Bristol in 2012.

Here is your local news for Bristol in 2012:

AAARGH! AAARGH!! WE'RE ALL DOOMED!

WE ARE SOOOO SCREWED! IT'S THE END OF CIVILISATION AS WE KNOW IT!! AAARGH!!

Thank you. That is all.

What? Really? You want more? How about we publish some prayers?... No? Well, if you insist.

THE LOCAL ECONOMY

It could be worse. You might be living in Doncaster or, well, anywhere else. Congratulations on your decision to be born in Bristol, or your decision to move to Bristol, or indeed your decision not to leave Bristol. In a global financial and economic meltf*ck scenario, this is one of the UK's least bad places to be.

While unemployment is rising everywhere, Bristol at least also has the highest rate of employment in the UK outside of London. Currently around 74% of the working-age population of Bristol is in a job. It might not sound too impressive when you consider that means that 26% are not working, but not all of that 26% is actively seeking work, and it's better than everywhere else.

Bristol has a comparatively small public sector, which of course is where jobs are being, and will continue to be, shed most quickly and in the largest numbers in the coming years. What Bristol does have is a comparatively big private sector working in growth areas like "advanced manufacturing" (high techy stuff), the "creative industries" (old media, PR, communications, the arts, new media, and those places where some or all of the above meet up) and green industries.

Of all these, the advanced manufacturing will remain the most economically important, particularly aerospace. Airbus, which employs 4,000 people on its own at Filton (never mind all its other local suppliers, and other local aerospace firms, especially across the road at Rolls Royce) has a full order book, with every chance of more work to come. That's because whatever's happening in the world economy, airlines need to order their new aircraft several years before they actually need them.

If you want a mark of how well aerospace is doing, the Office for National Statistics late last year came up with figures for the average salary of males in full-time employment by parliamentary constituency. The average pay in Filton & Bradley Stoke in 2010/11 was £23,774, a rise of 2.1% on the previous year; in Bristol South it was £19,962, a drop of a whacking great 6.4%. Expect the 2011/12 numbers to show an even wider gap.

There's a couple of things to watch here. First the satanic plan by BAe Systems to sell the airfield for houses, which now has all of Bristol up in arms. Whether or not they succeed it's likely to mean all of Bristol (even the non-Bristolian humanities graduates who occupy almost all the managerial positions at the council) will love aerospace in a way that's not happened since the days of Concorde.

The other thing is that aerospace is likely to increasingly be seen as a generator of advanced new green technologies in everything from biofuels (grown from green slime in the sea, not the nasty old-school biofuels that eat up farmland) to radical new materials technologies. Bristol is a world leader in the latter.

The creative industries aren't as important economically to Bristol as engineering, however much perky PR people and digital media spods would like you to think so, but they do matter, and they're a growing sector locally. The thing to look out for here is whether or not the Local Enterprise Zone succeeds in getting and progressing with its proposed "media hub". Key to this is whether or not the BBC buy into the idea. The Beeb is undergoing a massive reorganisation and moving various parts of its empire around the country. Bristol has done quite well out of this, but the BBC still plan on selling off its Whiteladies Road complex. If they commit to the proposed hub around Temple Meads station, that will be very good news.

So, not all gloom and doom then, but nonetheless, 15,000 or so people will be claiming Jobseekers Allowance in Bristol alone by the time you read this – a rise of over 3,000 on this time last year. A combination of spending cuts and general economic climate is going to make things worse, especially as the cuts will start to erode the support services and agencies which are there to help the unemployed, especially youngsters. A lot of shops, restaurants, pubs and bars are going to go bust, while the rest will work even harder to attract customers.

There will be some building work going, and the government recently stumped up £100m for new bendy bus routes and the completion of the Avon Ring Road from Hartcliffe to Long Ashton. A lot of locals and green campaigners are dead against this, but it's widely felt that improved transport around here will have major economic benefits for the whole of south Bristol. Work may not start until later in the year, though.

One thing that's a dead cert about this year's news: every single development – every proposed house, road scheme, shopping centre, industrial site and supermarket – will be presented to planning committees and via the media in terms of how many jobs it will create. Everything that business proposes, good or bad, will be couched in those terms. You have to wonder, for instance, if the Ashton Vale Stadium and associated supermarket and housing developments were being proposed in 2012 instead of a few years back, whether they'd have had a much easier ride.

DEMOGRAPHICS

The downside to Bristol's prosperity relative to the rest of the country is the growing pressures on housing and the infrastructure because of the city's booming population. This year, the results of the 2011 census will start to emerge, and the numbers could be quite startling.

In the decades after the 1950s, Bristol's population bumped along at around the 400,000 mark as natural increases were absorbed by people moving to suburbs and towns outside the city boundaries. This is now changing dramatically because of immigration (from overseas and the rest of the UK) and a growing birth rate. The estimate is that it'll hit 550,000 sometime in the 2020s – remember this is just within the city's boundaries alone. It doesn't include places like Kingswood or Bradley Stoke.

The birth rate is soaring for several reasons; a bulge (sorry) in the number of women of childbearing age, more women having children in their 30s and even 40s, and the fact that some ethnic groups have larger  families. Of the 6,000+ children born in Bristol each year now, around 500 are born to mothers from Poland or Somalia, the two largest overseas incomer groups.

The council told the government the primary school system can't take it, and the government gave the city an extra £18m to help out. Bristol actually needs something closer to £70m to cope. So expect bigger primary school classes. There will also be a continuing trend of segregation in primary schools as all ethnic groups choose the schools where they feel their kids will fit in best. This will have consequences.

There may well also be a row about how accurate the census numbers are. It's notoriously difficult to get an exact handle on the populations of city areas with large transient and immigrant populations, but in census terms it matters because the amount of money which central government allocates for local council spending depends on a reliable measure of the population. So expect Bristol to claim that the census has underestimated its population.

PUBLIC SERVICES

The public-facing bits of Bristol City Council like to put a positive face on things. It was also the case that the Lib Dems, running the council as a minority administration, were until quite recently in a state of denial about the sheer scale of the cuts they have to make.

In late November, the council unveiled a massive package of cuts, and rises in charges for services. These economies amounted to around £21m (and around 350 job losses) and they are still not enough to meet its cost savings targets. The council tax won't be going up this year, but for instance, you'll have to pay £10 for a disabled blue parking badge and they're hoping to raise £500,000 from tougher enforcement of bus lanes. Council staff will also be invited to take unpaid leave. It is also quite possible that the council's care homes will be closed or privatised.

And yet, in spite of all this, the biggest public stink on the local radio phone-ins, newspaper letters pages and message boards wasn't about any of that. It was over the introduction of a £1 car parking charge for Ashton Court. Perhaps the public can't grasp the true scale of what's going on, or maybe they're just idiots.

Your new rubbish bin will be arriving soon, if you've not had it already. It's smaller than the last one. Part of the council's deal with a new private contractor, May Gurney (CEO Philip Fellowes-Prynne pictured above. Throw out less, recycle more. But then we'll all have less to throw out anyway.

Obviously it's great that we're putting less trash into landfill, and in the long run it does mean that council and communities alike are going to come up with some clever and economical new ways of doing things. There's going to be a lot of creative and radical new thinking about public services.

But in the meantime we're all going to have to cope with increased inconvenience, poorer services and more expense. Many services will be privatised, though it'll be a brave politician who can keep on saying that privatised services are more efficient with a straight face. We all know now that what privatised services are is cheaper, because they pay their staff less and don't usually recognise trade unions.

POLITICS

No elections this year; this is the one in the four-year cycle when we don't elect a third of the council. Course there might be a by-election or two. If this happens, bet on a Labour win and the Lib Dems being stuffed.

The Lib Dems are currently running the town as a minority, and they'll probably still be doing so by the end of the year.

This pre-supposes that the Lib Dems' different factions manage to hold together. This time last year your correspondent rashly predicted Lib Dem defections to the Greens; this didn't quite happen, although a number of disenchanted Lib Dem activists helped the Green candidate who stood against Barbara Janke in her Clifton ward in 2011. This time round allow me to suggest a possible defection of a councillor from the Lib Dems to Labour. Just a rumour, I heard, like. May be nothing to it...

Labour and the Tories will be content to let the Lib Dems run the show, and criticise them at every turn, hoping to reap the electoral rewards when, or preferably just before, the good times return.

The Labour group pulled off a brilliant stroke when they called on the council to donate the wages it hadn't had to pay the 30 November public sector strikers to charity. This elicited such a furious response from Lib Dem leader Barbara Janke's office (pictured) that it plainly hit home. There'll be more of this.

In February, look out for the annual meeting at which the full council votes on the budget. This promises to be one of the most fractious and farcical ever, as Lib Dems and Labour trade insults and cheap jibes over who's cutting what and spending on what, while the Tories will find something politically correct to moan about. The row will, as always,  only be about a tiny fraction of the £360m budget. Of course, it might be that they seriously discuss something big, but if, say, the Lib Dems are closing care homes, they'll do everything in their power to bury it on a busy news day.

(In fact right now government and local government press officers across the land will be looking to release all the bad news they can on 27 July, the day everyone will be watching the Olympics opening ceremony.)

Lots of councils are currently losing judicial reviews over cuts that they've made, and the case that's usually being upheld against them is that they have not taken due care in legal requirements to assess the equalities impact (this is relatively recent legislation from the Labour government). This might frustrate opposition budget amendments as they can't be passed unless they've been run against the equalities criteria (effect it'll have on children, people with disabilities, ethnic minorities etc). If the amendment hasn't been properly assessed, legal officers may well forbid it. This won't suit opportunistic and mischievous political grandstanding as some councillors would much rather spring their amendment as a surprise at the council meeting, rather than having to show it to council officers days or weeks beforehand. You will get people screaming democracy is dead.

The other burning issue will be whether or not we want an elected mayor. See separate news story on p.31 for that one. Later on in the year we'll also be electing a police commissioner for Avon and Somerset. The Tories think this is a good idea; you know, voting for someone with whom the buck stops for local policing. So basically we'll get a bunch of candidates appealing to the moron vote by promising to hang them, flog them, throw away the key, cut their goolies off etc.

FUN

There will still be fun. There was a bit of a question mark over whether or not the council would continue to support the Harbour Festival, but it now looks likely to go ahead, perhaps in slightly different form, and possibly not run by the council. You might argue here that this sort of thing is better done by independent promoters anyway, though the Harbour Fest was one of the few things that Bristol City Council did really well in recent years.

And See No Evil might ride again. The big beano down Nelson Street which attracted some of the world's leading graff artists in 2011 might well be making a comeback. Not to Nelson Street this time, but some other location. One possible place that's being talked about is the dilapidated old Post Office building near Temple Meads. Watch this space ...

Folks never used to think of Bristol as a tourist destination, but that's all starting to change now. Specially given that more people are going to be taking their holidays and city-breaks in the UK as the rest of the world gets expensive and you can't be sure whether you'll be able to use the bundle of Euros you brought with you.

There are tentative plans afoot between council, tourism folks, business and arts people to create an annual summer 'Bristol Festival', partly as a sort of branding exercise – as in Edinburgh has a festival which loads of people go to, so why can't we do that as well? It won't be like Edinburgh at all. In the early stages, it'll draw a lot of existing summer events together, and add a bit more fun. But it might get bigger in the years to come.

The Bristol Festival of Ideas will carry on trying to make us more brainy, and this year will have a load of events celebrating writers in Bristol. The Kite Festival is resting this year, but we're promised a couple of major outdoor events at Ashton Court. It's also possible that there might be one or two big things at Stoke Park, the huge site alongside the M32 that the council bought a few years ago but has never really known what to do with (a few years back they were even talking about having a council farm to grow livestock for use in school dinners). This is a fantastic space, and could one day be a major outdoor venue if they can sort the traffic and parking issues.

Oh, and over in London they'll be having the Olympics or, as everyone who missed out on any arts funding because all the Lottery cash got diverted that way calls them, the F*cking Olympics. Some people will run through Bristol with the torch, there'll be some other bits and pieces locally under the aegis of the "Cultural Olympiad" and lots of kids will be encouraged to do more sport. Shortly before the remaining sports fields are sold off for houses and Tesco convenience stores because, hey, think how many "jobs" they will "create".

MEANWHILE, IN BATH...

Looks like 2012 could be a bumpy ride for the old place, says Anna Britten.

This year, more than ever, Bath will feel like a city of two tribes: the transient, smiley one and the permanent, frowny one.

The former will whistle through for a day or two, spending their readies on tourist attractions and a retail scene increasingly focused on the big brand (from Southgate to Jamie’s) and the totally frivolous (this city suffers from a serious tea-light holder and nostalgic cushion overload). Meanwhile the residents will see their city become more and more resident-unfriendly, whilst struggling with the ongoing effects of recession: in the 2012/13 financial year, there will be a further £3.6 million cut to B&NES public services, amounting to an 8.3% reduction. Mobile library services and some park maintenance both face the chop, and the introduction of charges for disabled drivers badges and certain refuse collection services have been recommended.

New construction projects offer signs of hope. In early January, City of Bath College will host Secretary of State Vince Cable at the opening ceremony of its substantial new Roper Building. Jobs – a predicted 200 over two years – will come up for grabs this spring, when work commences on the multi-million-pound, five-star Gainsborough Hotel, the first in the city to have its own access to the city's world-famous hot springs and due to open in 2014. And the newly-minted Bath Riverside will finally become a real ’hood as the first residents unpack their teacups on the 44-acre site that lay derelict for 25 years. The final snagging’s being done on the first 299 homes, a mix of family houses, one and two-bedroom apartments, and affordable homes for Somer Community Housing Trust. This is a development to feel cheered by and it’s only the first phase. Also, mooted knock-on effects would include redevelopment at a string of sites along the River Avon, bringing up to 2,000 new private sector jobs and 3,500 new homes (subject to flood prevention and other works). The grit in this oyster is, to most Bath residents, the potential involvement of Tesco, whose controversial campaign to take over the old Bath Press site (for a superstore, office and homes) oozes on. This year B&NES Planning Inspectorate will appoint an inspector to take charge of a public inquiry.

City MP Don Foster, a member of the Olympic Board, won’t be the only one feeling personally engaged with the world’s biggest sporting event next summer. The Olympics torch will pass through the city next summer, as will the British Paralympic Association, the Malaysian Olympic squad and possibly the Russian swimming squad – all based at The University of Bath, along with a string of athletes hoping to win a medal and an open-top victory bus tour. Fingers crossed and eyes peeled for competitors in the modern pentathlon, badminton, canoeing, judo and other events.

Now, whilst the at-first-sight merely bureaucratic Rec/Bath Rugby saga might seem an almighty drag to outsiders, to residents the debate is hotting up. To recap: the rugby club wants the land, but it’s a charitable trust bequeathed to the people of Bath. 2011’s public consultation – slammed by many for its obtuse wording and distribution beyond the city limits – found in the club’s favour and may have given it cause to celebrate. But the battle for non-rugger types’ hearts is far from over. Judging by letters to the Chronicle many Bath residents are waking up to the fact Recreation Ground trustees are “letting them down” – and further challenges are inevitable.

In other sports news, Bath City FC will decide in the coming year whether to build a new ground or redevelop their existing one at Twerton Park. And a new festival of cycling – Bike Bath 2012 – is to take place in Bath over the weekend of Fri 22-Sun 24 June, offering organised rides of up to 100 miles, fun activities and top-level racing in Royal Victoria Park.

And finally, a couple of brand new and piping hot topics to give the bloggers and letter writers something to get their typing fingers into during 2012. Gypsy and traveller sites: should there be more, fewer, and where? A public consultation closes this month. Further hysteria should be fuelled by the plans of two energy firms, UK Methane and Eden Energy, to start ‘fracking’ (a tremor-causing drilling technique used to extract gas) under the Mendips. B&NES council fear this could damage or divert the city’s legendary thermal waters. Whatever happens, we shall doubtless all enjoy using the words “fracking nightmare”.

CLICK HERE TO SEE WHAT OTHER LOCAL FOLK PREDICT FOR THE YEAR 2012

Copyright Eugene Byrne and Anna Britten 2011