FEATURES

A growing population, spiralling house prices and a shortage of affordable accommodation add up to a market that can’t meet the demand for housing in the South West. Eugene Byrne reports.

I was talking to an official from Bristol City Council a couple of weeks back about the housing problems the city faces, and said, "So then, it's a perfect storm, is it?" He got about as close as any public servant gets to agreeing with such ridiculous journalistic hyperbole.

Then I was talking to other Venue folks in an editorial meeting about Bristol's housing problems, and one of them said, "So then, can we call it a perfect storm?"

Yes.

So here's the problem... (We're talking about Bristol here, but you can pretty much apply all this to most other places. If you want a difference, it's that Bristol's economic problems aren't as bad as most other places, but that its population problems are way worse than most. The population problem, is, of course, a sign of economic success.)

The economy is in the doldrums, the housing market is in bad shape. Between 2007 and now, something like half the estate agents in Britain went out of business, or decided to do something worthwhile with their lives instead.

House prices are stagnating, and lenders are wary. Back in the day you could get a 100% mortgage quite easily, but nowadays the norm is closer to 75%, meaning that first-time buyers need a much larger deposit. While prices might not be as high as they used to be, you'll have a hard time finding a half-decent basic place in Bristol for much less than £150k. If you had to slap down a 25% deposit on that, that's thirty seven and a half grand.

At the same time, there simply aren't enough new houses being built. Again, this is partly a result of the economic downturn and the problems developers and builders are having in raising finance or in being able to sell the properties they build.

One of the first actions of the Coalition government on coming to power was taken by Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government Eric Pickles, who tore up Labour's Regional Spatial Strategies (RSSs), which placed house-building targets on local councils around the country. The RSSs were no big deal in Bristol, which always maintained that the 26,000 new homes it was supposed to have – and still hopes to have – by 2030 can mostly be built on brownfield sites in the city. But in neighbouring authorities, especially North Somerset and Bath & North East Somerset, the RSSs were detested by local NIMBYs who feared their pleasant villages and rural areas would be plastered in new houses, some of them on green belt land. There is virtually no likelihood of the green belt around Bristol being built on anytime soon. Many will say this is a good thing. But it doesn't solve the housing shortage.

Meanwhile, the Coalition have proved themselves true friends of Middle England in other ways. The shortage of housing and difficulty in getting mortgages means more people are renting. Those people who bought places to rent out during the “buy-to-let” boom of a few years ago are now quite happy. Private sector rents are rising.

Average rents in the private sector in the South West region are forecast to increase by 18.9% over the next five years, fuelled by high demand and a shortage of properties. Oxford Economics, in a report for the National Housing Federation (NHF), which represents England's housing associations, predict that average rents in the South West will rise from £448 a month in 2011 to £533 in 2016.

The amount of private rented housing in Bristol is probably equal to the amount of social housing. The last time this happened was in 1918, when sizeable proportions of the city's population lived in slums.

Meanwhile, the government want to reduce the housing benefit bill. One of the biggest worries is an obscure change so that claimants under the age of 35 will be assumed to be sharing rented accommodation. If they're not, they'll have to find the extra money to make up the benefit shortfall. A lot won't be able to do this and there will be less and less accommodation for the poorest, and private sector landlords are less likely to want to take on tenants on benefits. You're going to get more bedsits and shared homes – houses in multiple occupation (HMOs), in the jargon – and some of those houses are going to have tenants with seriously chaotic lives.

The NHF’s South West Manager, Jenny Allen, told Venue: “It’s clear that the welfare reform agenda is going to leave many people on low incomes feeling even more squeezed. There are specific issues of concern to us, such as the move to reduce the level of housing benefit paid for people of working age who are deemed to under-occupy their homes. This could lead to people falling behind on their rent and potentially losing their home. Housing associations are committed to assisting their tenants with any difficulties they might have and many have financial inclusion and advice services. However, given that this squeeze is going to be felt across the private and social rented sectors, I think there will unfortunately be a rise in homelessness. I don't have any idea of likely numbers.”

At the same time, Bristol's population is growing hugely, and in less than 20 years might have increased by a third (see panel).

Bristol City Council's housing register, which bands applicants according to how urgent their needs are and seeks to house them, has over 15,000 names. While about a quarter of these are already housed and are requesting a transfer, it's still a rise of 3,000 on three years ago. Once the new benefit rules kick in, officials expect the numbers to grow, and the numbers of people who are actually homeless will almost certainly rise as well.

Cllr Anthony Negus (LD, Cotham), Cabinet Member for Housing, Property Services and Regeneration at Bristol City Council, says there's only so much that the council can do. “We have made provision for 26,000 new homes over the planning period and would expect production of both market and social housing to return to higher levels once market conditions improve. Funding of social housing will depend on government decisions on the public finances.”

The problems we now face have much older roots, he says: specifically the Thatcher government's introduction of 'Right to Buy' in the 1980s, which enabled council tenants to buy their homes, often for bargain prices. “We do not have enough homes in this city. Both Labour and Conservative governments have not managed to build enough to cover those lost from social housing under ‘Right To Buy’. House-building is a fast stimulus to a dormant economy and solves problems at one end while taking people off benefit at the other. But building is not enough. The homes need to be taken up, either by buyers who need access to funds, or a sustainable and dynamic affordable housing model.”

The council is sitting on a lot of land all over the place, and hopes to make more of it available to build on. It also gives small amounts of money in capital subsidies to social housing organisations to help them build. It’s also looking at loosening up the current regulations which demand that a certain percentage of new private developments are "affordable" homes. Currently developers are supposed to make 30% of a development affordable in outlying parts of town, and 40% in the middle of town. They might ease up on these for a while to get various developments moving again.

Bristol is also making a lot of noise about bringing empty properties back into use. Empty houses and flats all over the place are rarely owned by landlords; more usually they're empty because the owner has died, or gone into a care home, and the rest of the family aren't sure what to do about it. Sometimes places are empty for completely inexplicable reasons. The council will step in and try to persuade the owner to rent it out, offering loans or rent guarantees to help. This works fine with a place that's been empty for six months or less and which is therefore in reasonable condition. For places that have been empty longer, there are more drastic measures, such as compulsory purchase orders. Under the slogan 'No Use Empty' the council continues to remind owners of the advantages of bringing properties onto the market. “We cannot be certain exactly what the effect will be as so many factors are at play. However, we increased by 50 the number of empties brought into use in 2010/11, over the target of 400, and we are hoping for similar delivery in 2011/12 with our enhanced No Use Empty campaign," says Cllr Negus.

“It is very difficult to predict what the relaxation of the planning rules will deliver, but crucially it sends a signal to the market that we are willing to flex when conditions are difficult. It has been welcomed by at least one developer already. We are also looking at other measures, such as release of council land to housing associations and mortgage assistance to help increase supply and stimulate the market.”

In the meantime, things are going to get bumpy. Jenny Allen of the NHF: “Home ownership has been moving out of the reach of average and lower income earners for some time, but now – with further price rises expected in the next five years and private sector rents set to increase significantly too – it’s becoming clear that we have a totally dysfunctional housing market in the South West. With waiting lists already topping 148,000 [throughout the region] and house-building at its lowest level in 90 years we’re facing a major crisis.”

Bristol's population explosion

Bristol's population steadily declined from the 1950s before stabilising in the 1990s. It has been growing since then. The UK population has increased by an estimated 5.3% since 2001, but Bristol’s population has increased by more than double that, around 13%.

There are now about 440,000 people living in Bristol. If the trend of the last 10 years continues, there'll be another 133,000 by 2028. This growth of 30% would be one of the highest in the UK.

This is just within the boundaries of Bristol City Council. The wider built-up area – sometimes called Greater Bristol, or the Bristol Urban Area – has a population of 630,000. Three quarters of the population growth in the last 10 years has been within the city council area.

The population rise has been caused by a high rate of migration, coupled with an increasing birth-rate. Large numbers of people, both white British and ethnic minority, have moved here in recent years. After white Britons, the two largest incomer groups have been Poles and Somalis.

The birth-rate has been rising because some ethnic minority groups tend to have larger families, but also because more and more women over 30, who have put off childbirth for economic or career reasons, are now choosing to have them.

There were 6,230 live births in Bristol in 2009. Some 321 of these were to mothers who had been born in Somalia. Some 192 were to mothers born in Poland. Around 28% of reception year children in Bristol’s primary schools are from a black, minority or other ethnic group.

While the population is increasing, the size of households in Bristol is getting smaller. Currently, 38% of all households in Bristol are one-person households, 37% comprise of a couple with no other adult (but might have children), 7% are couples with one or more other adults, 8% are lone parent households and the remaining 10% are multi-person (e.g. student shared houses). Some 23% of all households in Bristol include dependent children. By 2028, about 43% of all households in the city will comprise a single person.

The highest concentrations of lone-parent families are found in the local authority housing areas of Bristol (e.g. Southmead, Lockleaze, Hartcliffe) where up to 20% of all households are lone-parent households. The lowest percentages of lone-parent families are in the affluent suburbs of north west Bristol.

Failure to launch?

More and more young adults are nowadays supposed to be living with their parents longer, or returning to the nest after finishing university because they can't afford a place of their own. Often they're in the homes of parents who, 20 or 30 years ago who got out of the family home at the first opportunity, and wouldn't have dreamed of returning. Steve Norwood, 49, divorced and something in local government, lives in Bristol with daughter Bryony, 22, a trainee nurse, and James, 24, a fine art graduate who currently works in a supermarket.

If you're a teenager, or the parent of secondary school-age children, this is what your home life might look like in ten years’ time.

“I’d have been surprised if they weren’t still living with me. I’ve single-parented the little darlings since they were knee high so they’re used to my levels of cooking and hygiene (low).

“Theoretically, they're supposed to pay me 20% of their income, but in reality this barely covers food, let alone bills. My daughter often simply declares she can’t afford to pay this month, usually because she's spent it all on going out. We argue, but obviously I’m not going to evict her.

“My daughter and her fiancé live in a large back room which has an en suite, so they’re fairly well self-contained apart from use of the kitchen. He’s a builder, and they did up the back room at their own cost in lieu of rent. They plan to stay for at least a couple of years. My son could probably afford to rent elsewhere, but I think he likes living at home, and it saves him a load of money.

“There are some strains, as with any group of people living together. My daughter is disgustingly messy, and on the rare occasions she cooks, the squalid mess is enough to ruin any appetite. Another problem – with both of them – is they leave lights, TVs, radios switched on all the f*cking time. My daughter often adjusts the thermostat so the house is boiling hot all bl**dy night because she felt slightly chilly 10 minutes before going to bed.

“My daughter and her bloke will probably eventually buy a cheap dump of a house and do it up. My son will probably end up living with his girlfriend. They certainly won’t be with me when they’re 40 because I will either be dead or drooling in an old people’s home.

“I moan about them, but of course I actually love having them at home. They give the house (and my life) a buzz and a purpose. I’d never let them know it, but I will miss them dreadfully when they finally flee the nest.”

Copyright Eugene Byrne 2011